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Posts Tagged ‘statistics’

It’s Never Good Enough

March 19th, 2024 No comments

This piece is inspired by a podcast to which I subscribe, entitled; Inner French.  The topic was the extent to which people have become unwittingly enslaved by the many electronic devices available in modern society. Specifically, this podcaster, Hugo Cotton, discusses the degree to which his daily activities became obsessively tied to the tabulations put out by his exercise watch.

While ostensibly, the watch was just an appendage to show time and distance travelled on his jogging runs, the other aspects of his life also monitored by the watch began to create a need in his mind to attain prescribed targets of things such as sleep duration and quality. In essence, he realized that this obsession with reaching targets prescribed by the watch were having adverse effects on his life and thus, he stopped wearing it except for the jogging runs.

I found this to be an interesting observation as this phenomenon has enslaved an entire world by linking their lives to electronic devices.  Of course, we’re not talking about basic smartphones per se; everyone in the world has one and that device is indelibly linked to each person’s lives and personality.  But phones are not just about basic communication as we all know.

What is more troubling is that people have fallen into the trance conveyed primarily by their phones on how to live their lives in general.

In the not too distant past, if people saw something on television or read something in a newspaper, it was deemed to be true, thus those platforms had enormous impact on people.  Clearly those who controlled those outlets would have significant leverage on any given society.  Cellphones, or more specifically, apps on smartphones have mostly taken over the role of TV and newspapers.  Instagram and Facebook are the modern equivalent of unimpeachable sources.

For some reason, there are endless tips and sage advice on how to ‘better’ one’s life or to more effectively perform some mundane task such as frying an egg or tying a shoe. Apparently we’ve been doing it wrong for centuries. There are targets given for physical competence, for cognitive ability or for raising your dogs and children.  We are given advice on the best foods to eat, at what time of the day to eat them, the subtleties of olive oil and the best things to buy at Costco.

We are measured against some mythical statistics on longevity and are given advice on how to attain such immortality by consuming the right amount of kale or by walking 8000 steps per day and drinking organic coconut water. Often this advice is given by 20 something year old ‘influencers’ with acne who’ve just graduated from high school (or not).  Not only that, but apps are always available to measure the targets of such an idealized life. As noted in Hugh Cotton’s experience, people fuss over reaching statistical targets arbitrarily set by ‘experts’.

And people believe it.  They believe the advice on how to get wealthy simply by leveraging themselves in real estate or to put it all into Crypto currencies. People become stressed when they compare the ‘progress’ in their lives versus those depicted on social media platforms. It is never good enough. Invariably, people will find famous people who will espouse sentiments favorable to their own and thus the modern phenomenon of ‘following’ people becomes the norm. Admit it or not, the phenomenon of hanging on to every word of powerful influencers is as additive as any drug.

With great irony, the proliferation of ‘information’ on so many levels creates more stress in people than the liberating health benefits that these devices purport to provide.  There are unrealistic expectations created to which people cannot achieve, thus fostering people’s natural insecurities. Think of the business model of Peloton, the stationary virtual bike machine in which you are on a leaderboard against other cyclists.   Think ab0ut Duolingo, a language learning app in which you are on a leaderboard with other learners.  While it can be argued that these are just effective tools,  in practice, people can become handcuffed to their own unrealistic expectations and perceived inadequacies and in fact may bring out obsessive behaviors.   By their own hand, people have increasingly and unknowingly chained themselves to their electronic devices.

It’s worthwhile to remember that not all ‘statistically’ derived advice is valid. Some of us will remember that in the 1960’s, 4 out of 5 doctors recommended a certain brand of cigarette. And we must not forget the famous phrase attributed to Mark Twain: “…there are lies, damned lies and statistics…”

 

Choice Versus Permission

April 23rd, 2020 No comments

source: https://policyadvice.net/car-insurance/insights/how-many-people-die-in-car-accidents/

Who knows when logical thought will prevail over hysterical bleating, but as a simple excercise in comparative statistics, let’s take a look at one of the leading causes of death in the world.  Bear in mind that this statistic generally increases every year with the world’s population growth and so this phenomenon is a regular on-going thing, not just a seasonal scare.

That horrible scourge causing the loss of well over a million lives every year in all nations is….car accidents.

According to the insurance related link above, they estimate that 1.3 million people perish each year from automobile accidents worldwide, averaging 3,700 deaths per day.   Comparing this to the running count of Corona virus deaths currently estimated at 188,000 and we can see that car accidents are still more deadly than this vaunted modern day plague.  If we extrapolate the 188,000 deaths to the end of the year, we’d still be shy of the mortality number estimated for car accidents. Some may argue that the virus may spread exponentially, but I counter that rates of infection have already shown signs of peaking and  thus the mortality total may be far less.  In fact they are working on vaccinations which will likely curb the virus completely.

On the other hand, car accidents will likely continue.

Oddly, with the steady rate of deaths by automobiles over the years, there has never been a clamor to stop the use of them.  There has never been a directive for people to stay in their homes to avoid death by being run over. Nobody has closed restaurants, nail salons, lumber yards, post offices or massage parlors because of the very real probability of being an accident statistic.

Certainly, people with strong paranoid agoraphobia may stay at home hiding under beds in fear of a car crashing into their living rooms (and it does happen) but the vast majority of people accept this great risk of modern life and go about their daily activities.  There is no prohibition on everyone driving because people can choose to roll the dice or they can choose not to drive. Some may argue that a virus can be caught unwittingly by normal activity.  Well, nobody plans a car accident.  Somehow, nations are able to function even with the statistical specter of death hovering over them every year.

The actual lethalness of the virus has become a side issue next to the hysterical responses in its wake.  Petty inconveniences like overdue haircuts and dental appointments are eclipsed by authoritarian decrees by tin pot administrators drunk on power banning the assembly and circulation of their subjects.  People are standing in line to buy necessities that they are allowed to buy for their families.  People are not allowed to work.  People are only allowed out at certain times and with strict restrictions. In essence, people are required to have permission from the state to live a normal life.

Not only are we required to line up like cattle at airports to be stripped searched and scanned, daily routines now require lining up to buy food and toilet paper. We are assured it’s all for the greater good. This sounds suspiciously like some totalitarian states which most people profess to abhor.

I’m certainly tired of watching some ‘bureaucratic expert’ speaking benignly every day about the disaster upon us and the long road of grief to come.  In reality, they have as much clarity about outcomes as they do about the next day’s weather. For variety, I suggest we give some time to other professional hand wringers who will save us from car accidents, overeating, smoking, drinking and excess tattoos.  They can be sponsored by companies making the best beds to hide under as well as tin hats.