link Why Groupon Is Poised For Collapse.
Lurking underneath the hype of crazy valuations for ‘social networking’ companies recently are some sobering realities of their business models. Talk abounds now of a $100 billion dollar valuation for Facebook for example. Ahem. Groupon has seen a meteoric rise from only 3 years ago to achieve some real eye popping valuations in advance of their much anticipated IPO. But what are people buying? This article gives a revealing look at the mechanics of the Groupon model.
For those not steeped in finance, it’s essentially a mechanism to give short term loans to small businesses, which, under the right terms, is a good thing. It’s somewhat eerie to consider that the financing model looks strikingly similar to the whole housing mortgage disaster which crippled the American economy just recently. In both cases, money was essentially lent on favorable terms in advance to people on the financial fringe on the expectation that the carrying cost would be offset by rising house prices or by increased sales volumes in the case of the Groupon model. Now that I think about it, that’s the same model used to sell Government treasury bonds. Hmm.
This all works as long as things go as expected. What are the odds of that not happening? I’m sure the flinty eyed MBA’s and actuaries at the big investment firms have done their risk calculations to arrive at a resultant valuation for the IPO. After all, to float a $100 billion market cap company, you’d have to convince a lot of smart people, not just the rubes buying 100 shares for their grandkids. The truth is, many investments are good investments only because everyone else thinks they are, not neccesarily because of fundamental reasons. Stock investing is prone to the dictates of fad just like accesories in the fashion world. Compounding that is the reality that many investment professionals drink from the same cup as far as market wisdom; the Bernie Madoff scam proved that just recently.
Actually, I think the Groupon founders are geniuses for creating such a finance model since it obviously fulfills a need in the marketplace. The reality is that no one gets something for nothing in business. Consumers may get goods at a discount using their services, but definitely not to get their stock. If it were me, I’d wait for the discount.
link Osama Bin Laden had not left room where he was shot for last 5 YEARS, claims wife | Mail Online.
Here’s something no one has considered. Bin Laden wanted to be found and killed.
This is as logical as any other of the theories surrounding his masterful hiding for over 5 years and subsequent discovery. According to revelations by one of his 3 or 4 wives living with him all this time in the large house in Pakistan, they never left the walls of the gulag style compound…in all that time! How is this much different than being imprisoned in the federal hoosegow in Joliet for example?
Paranoia had to be Osama’s normal state since literally the entire world was looking for him. From sophisticated spy satellites, to night vision monitors to orphan boys delivering newspapers, there was the possibility of detection at any time. He wasn’t allowed any telephones or cable or satellite service, so amusing himself on Facebook was out. He was constantly surrounded by smelly men with guns who were likely humorless stooges. In his darker moments, I’m sure he was reminiscing about his privileged, rich and comfortable youth. “What was I thinking?!”, he must have asked himself a million times. Of course he was trapped. He couldn’t just retire and pass on the leadership reins to the next fanatic. There is no retirement resort for ex-terrorist Jihad leaders. There was no upside in being the world figurehead of terrorism if there were no perks. Directing terrorism from inside a walled prison for 5 years was probably not in the original plan. When news got to him that Al Gore was being wined and celebrated as a visionary worldwide, it must have eaten him up.
Near the end, the reality of living with not one, not two but up to 4 wives in the same place had to take its toll on the poor guy. ” You never take us out”, ” Is Fatima prettier than me?” “You never take out the garbage” etc. The constant refereeing of cat-fights among his wives must have wore him down. Five years of this while looking at the same stone walls would drive anyone insane. Even with 4 real life wives, I’m sure he was musing about the 72 in the hereafter. He saw giving up as his only out. When the Navy Seals broke in, he may have been relieved for a split second until he realized that he was wanted DEAD or ALIVE and they were ignoring the Alive part. The truth will come out eventually.