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Razor Thin Logic

January 20th, 2016 No comments

Source: Global stock markets fall amid oil rout – BBC News

It’s unlikely anyone is spreading this misinformation on purpose; more likely it’s misinformed people grasping at explanations.  We don’t need to resort to scholarly explanations, the simple math goes like this;  when the cost of essential living instruments decline, that’s a good thing.  Fuel, food and shelter constitute the basic costs for most people’s survival.  Internet connectivity is not, nor is coffee, sports tickets or shoes.

When ‘analysts’ all agree in concert and point to the decline of a fundamental product like crude oil as being the cause of a stock market meltdown, it begs credibility.  Recall that years ago, when oil prices moved from $20 dollars a barrel to over $120, forecasts were common that havoc would ensue for all of the world’s economies.  Somehow, economies adjusted.  Things got more expensive, but they adjusted.

As the price of crude tumbles, there’s no question that oil related concerns will suffer, but the benefits to the larger economy far outshadows the grief in that sector.  The cost of everything from air travel, trucking of goods, vacations, heating and manufacturing, declines!  The losers; exporters of oil, including the Saudis and Canadians.

So, linking the stock markets’ declines to the collapse in crude is a spurious correlation. It is far more likely that the cause of the markets’ swoon is better explained by Occam’s Razor.  This is the principle in physics which posits that given different explanations for an event, the simplest one is probably the best.  Quite simply, prices were too high in the stock market and not sustainable.   But that’s too elegantly simple for people who make money giving iffy explanations of things post facto.  Let’s hope food and shelter prices don’t crater by 80%, it would certainly mean Armageddon.

Tyranny, Tacos and Trump

January 18th, 2016 No comments

Source: Idaho Lunch Lady Fired for Giving Free Meal to Student in Need Offered Job Back by School District – ABC News

That a story like this even makes the news is an indication of how society’s rules have become so disconnected from the values of greater society.  The onslaught of combative lawsuits, threatened legal actions and oppressive regulations ravaging western societies for the past few generations have successfully beaten and bullied  much of what passes as common sense and decency into retreat.  The concept of ‘doing the right thing’ over doing the legal thing is becoming as abstract as a rotary phone.  In effect, the nation is populated by rule-breakers at every level in society, it’s just a matter of when they get caught.

It appears that people are willing to be governed mainly by byzantine rules enforced by fearful lackeys rather than as directed by their inner moral compasses.  They have ceded the rules of conduct within society to the interpretation by the present day ruling class….lawyers.  Lest this sound like so much hyperbole, there is ample evidence to assure that it’s not. This is hardly an original thesis.  In her revealing 2002 book, The Case Against Lawyers, Judge Catherine Crier detailed the sinister creep of the legal and political class in undermining the very freedoms for citizens that they purportedly champion.

That this compassionate Idaho worker was accused of stealing for the simple act of feeding a poor kid should be repulsive to anyone who considers themselves moral.  Someone decided to apply the letter of the law to this poor woman as if it was a high crime.  While the story may seem outrageous to most of us, we’ve likely all been at the receiving end of a similar bit of legal heavy handedness.  People resent this stuff; they begin to wonder exactly who are making the rules.

Meanwhile in California, a Taco Bell executive was recorded on camera raining blows to the head of his unfortunate Uber cab driver.  Since most people frown upon such behavior, he soon became an ex executive when fired by Taco Bell once the video came to public attention. Rather than slink away in shame, this ex executive has instead decided to double down on his cowardly behavior by finding a lawyer to sue for $5 million dollars claiming that he never gave permission to be filmed beating up the driver.  Of course, it’s an easy defense, since the driver can claim that he was not given advance notice of a beating. The fact that this loser would even be able to file such an action is absurd. Preposterousness has never been an obstacle for lawyers.   Some may recall a Harvard law professor figuratively kicking sand in the face of a restauranteur for an innocent error on a bill.

What does this have to do with Donald Trump? Nothing directly, but also everything. His crass media shtick is certainly not what you’d want your kids to emulate, but this same thumbing of expected conventions has resonated with an enormous segment of people who are  tired of being told what is correct to say or do by political leaders and by media.  People prefer to make their own choices on religion, on assembly, on speech, on firearms, on climate fiction, on foods they eat, on cars they drive and how their kids are educated. They find in Trump, a plain spoken champion willing to push back against political correctness, against the tyranny of legal red tape which smothers common sense at all levels.  They find in him a person not beholden to influential moneyed constituencies pushing narratives which are at odds with their own experiences.  Without specificity, Trump seems to be the guy that will do the right thing, a trait that many can identify with.

Of course, he is hardly perfect and we don’t know if he’ll do all the things that he promises; that would be delusional.  For now, warts aplenty, he makes the most noise and gives voice to people that other politicos apparently don’t.  It may just be that he’s  the most successful demagogue of this time. But at least he’s not a lawyer.