As IF Times

link Cains smoking ad divides Republicans: Reuters/Ipsos poll | Reuters.

What do we do with a guy named Herman.  The funny thing is, neither party knows what to do with him.  From an unlikely post way at the back of the pack, Herman Cain is all of a sudden leading or near the lead of the potential candidates for the Republican Presidential nomination.

The Democrats don’t know what to do with him since their entire attack campaign is geared towards the presumptive front runners Romney and/or Perry.  All of a sudden a charismatic non-politician pops out of nowhere and garners the attention of a large voting segment by force of his plain spoken, common sense style.  He’s a self made man, responsible for successfully running and saving a number of big name corporations and god help them, he’s black!

The left can’t claim that Cain’s lack of political experience is a handicap since the guy they pushed into office didn’t have any either.  Cain at least held a real job and employed people rather than living comfortably off the government dole.   They can’t attack him on his race, checkmate there.   So in the meantime, they resort to the predictable, tired old standby they’ve used for ages against every dangerous Republican contender.  They’ll paint him as dumb and unhinged.  Considering that the Dems are the party of Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden, that’s rich.  If one listens closely, you can hear the echoing sound from their heads whenever they speak due to all of the extra space in their cranial cavities.

Democrats have supported themselves for years by their narrative of identity politics especially when it comes to blacks.  The narrative is that without the Democrats to protect and provide for them, blacks would be helpless and disadvantaged in an oppressive society.  A guy like Herman comes along who’s done it on his own without government help and handouts, well that creates some doubt about their narrative.  And he’s a Republican to boot.  Who knows, maybe other blacks will get the same idea and pretty soon, there goes the party.  A guy like Herman is dangerous to them.

The Republicans on the other hand are so busy with their circular firing squad as they try to identify the most perfect candidate, that they don’t even see that Cain appeals to the massive amount of normal people who detest canned and coiffed candidates.  Cain’s main appeal is that regular people can identify with him the way that they can’t with the polished politicos offered up by the Republican establishment.  As of this writing, Cain doesn’t even have an organized team to address the upcoming Iowa and New Hampshire caucuses.  Horrors!  Karl Rove is in panic mode. Who is this guy?  He can’t be a serious contender, he’s not part of the establishment! He’s not doing things the way you’re supposed to.  He didn’t even have the common sense to not be shown smoking in a recent ad.

Well despite what most would expect, the recent ads showing Cain smoking didn’t turn people off.  In fact, it strangely made Cain more human, just a regular guy, not some airbrushed mannequin repeating the same canned talking points.  The guy seems genuine. So he smokes a little.  As much as most find the habit disgusting in this politically correct age, it’s refreshing to see someone not obsessed with his public image.  We see Cain at political appearances wearing a black fedora style hat, showing that he’s not the least concerned about presenting the usual airbrushed image that most politicians present these days.

The GOP had better smarten up.  All of their candidates have shortcomings in one way or another, but any of them would be more capable than the incumbent in the Oval office today.  All are very strong defenders of most conservative sensibilities, but they cannot be everything.  Instead of knocking each other for their worst  flaws, real or imagined, they’d be better off being  supportive of those that best reflect the values of the conservative crowd, which is more than half of the nation.  Conservatives have a big constituency to cover since their group covers such a wide range of opinion and thought so it’s harder for all to get behind one person.   The Dems on the other hand, only have to cover a narrow band of sensibilities, so their decision process is much simpler.   A guy like Herman comes along and he resonates with people for a reason.  He’s not politics as usual.  Everyone’s had enough of professional slicksters.  They want someone real.  To paraphrase the old Star-Kist tuna commercial, they don’t want someone real good, they want someone good and real.   Right now, that’s Herman.

link Fitch Says 50% Greek Bond Haircut Would Be Default Event – Businessweek.

After months of hand-wringing and warnings of dire consequences, an 11th hour deal was inked to help Greece avoid an unknown but certainly ugly financial scenario.  The E.U., headed principally by Germany, agreed on a rescue plan to halt the crisis.   Angela Merkel of Germany is being hailed as a triumphant hero for solving the debt impasse.  The collective action of stock markets worldwide was to explode higher in a frenzied stampede of buying as the boiling crisis appears to have been averted.

But was it?  It’s not as if someone stepped in to magically make the fiscal problems of Greece go away.  The agreement to support Greece’s ailing government and financial system was for all intents and purposes a default event.  A default event for those not versed in financial lingo is the arid description of someone not paying their debts.   According to articles such as the one linked, creditors of Greece’s debt holdings will take a 50% write off of their face value.

Imagine if someone owed you $1000 and after a series of unpaid interest events, he came to you and said he’d pay you $500…maybe.  I’m not sure many would be doing cartwheels and flips on that news.  In the case of Greece, the many banks, institutions and investors who are owed money on those bonds have been cajoled to write off their investment by half.  So, these investors are out of luck on their bad investment.  By extension, shareholders of these banks and institutions get haircuts on their investments.  Since some of the holders are governments, the taxpayers wind up subsidizing the loss.

But it’s not only greedy banks and investors who suffer as may be portrayed by the vapid media.

Some of the parties getting financial haircuts are Greek pension plans  themselves since they are big owners of government debt obligations.  In essence, the pool of money represented by those bonds available for paying future retirees etc will have shrunk by a half.  It’s as if you removed wood from the roof of a house to block up the leak in the basement during a heavy rain.

Whether in the case of Greece, or that person who borrowed $1000 from you and now only wants to pay back half, what is the likelihood that someone else will lend money to them based on this default record? As likely as flying pigs, unless of course a usurious rate of interest was applied… which ironically makes the likelihood for repayment more unlikely.

Greece is not alone with their fiscal problems.  Governments paying out much more than they take in is a common affliction to many nation-states.  What they faced is an issue that many other nations such as Italy and Portugal are grappling with as well.  Of course the country that faces this problem on the grandest scale is the United States.   If the process of lending money to nations gets iffier and iffier with many taking the route of Greece by defaulting, the cost of borrowing any money skyrockets.  When that happens, nobody gets loans because no one gets paid back.  I’m not so sure people will be cartwheeling then.

Personally, I feel that letting debtors off the hook is too easy.  If there are no real consequences, what’s to change the behaviour?  The classic method to enforce repayment of debt as practiced by such as the Mafia, was to break various body parts such as legs in order to enforce their creditor contracts.  Of course this only works on a small scale and the staffing problems associated with it would be difficult in today’s labor climate.   The other part was to assume ownership of whatever asset the debtor may have as collateral such as houses, cars or businesses.

Imagine if we applied this on the international scale.  Entire stretches of scenic beaches and resorts could be taken over as compensation for non payment of debt.  The entire face of a nation’s culture could conceivably change.  At the moment, the Germans and Chinese are rumored to be large holders of foreign debt.  What if they took over all the resort areas of Greece and changed the complexion of their culture?  Souvlaki Chan’s Taverna.  Or Octoberfest with Uzo instead of beer.  Hmm…